Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Mexico 0-0 Poland. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Neither Mexico nor Poland found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Mexico led Shots on target 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Mexico also shaded Total shots 11-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Mexico the likeliest result at 46.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mexico at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.75 against a fair line of 2.61. That translated to an edge of 5.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mexico

46.0%

Miss

Market result

Mexico

40.0%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

54.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Mexico

Mexico

Poland

4

2

Total shots

Mexico

Mexico

Poland

11

6

Possession

Mexico

Mexico

Poland

61%

39%

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

2.75

Fair odd

2.61

Edge

5.4%

Stake

0.66u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.