Mexico
Mexico won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
El Salvador
Postmatch editorial
Mexico made the numbers look right
The final score was Mexico 2-0 El Salvador. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Uriel Antuna put the first mark on the match 17', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mexico led Shots on target 6-0. Mexico also shaded Total shots 17-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Mexico the likeliest result at 65.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mexico at 88.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (71.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Sportingbet. The market was offering 1.18 against a fair line of 1.17. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Mexico
65.7%
Market result
Mexico
88.5%
BTTS
No
71.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
MexicoMexico
El Salvador
6
0
Total shots
MexicoMexico
El Salvador
17
6
Corners
MexicoMexico
El Salvador
8
2
Model edge
1
Sportingbet
Market odd
1.18
Fair odd
1.17
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.43u
That ticket matched the final outcome.