Mauritius
Cape Verde Islands won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Cape Verde Islands
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Cape Verde Islands delivered it
The final score was Mauritius 0-2 Cape Verde Islands. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Jovane Cabral put the first mark on the match 22', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cape Verde Islands led Total shots 4-11. Cape Verde Islands also shaded Possession 34%-66%.
Before kickoff, our model made Cape Verde Islands the likeliest result at 45.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cape Verde Islands at 67.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 1.50 against a fair line of 1.47. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Cape Verde Islands
45.5%
Market result
Cape Verde Islands
67.8%
BTTS
No
53.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Cape Verde IslandsMauritius
Cape Verde Islands
4
11
Possession
Cape Verde IslandsMauritius
Cape Verde Islands
34%
66%
Shots on target
Cape Verde IslandsMauritius
Cape Verde Islands
2
3
Model edge
2
Betsson
Market odd
1.50
Fair odd
1.47
Edge
2.0%
Stake
1.31u
That ticket matched the final outcome.