Mauritania
Mauritania won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Togo
Postmatch editorial
Mauritania settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Mauritania 2-0 Togo. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Papa Ndiaga Yade put the first mark on the match 13', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mauritania led Shots on target 4-2. Mauritania also shaded Total shots 7-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Mauritania the likeliest result at 42.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Togo at 38.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Unibet. The market was offering 3.10 against a fair line of 2.93. That translated to an edge of 5.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Mauritania
42.5%
Market result
Togo
38.2%
BTTS
No
52.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
MauritaniaMauritania
Togo
4
2
Total shots
MauritaniaMauritania
Togo
7
3
Corners
TogoMauritania
Togo
3
4
Model edge
2
Unibet
Market odd
3.10
Fair odd
2.93
Edge
5.8%
Stake
0.60u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.