Mauritania
Congo DR won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Congo DR
Postmatch editorial
Congo DR made the numbers look right
The final score was Mauritania 0-2 Congo DR. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Fiston Mayele scored 83' for Congo DR.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Mauritania led Total shots 5-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Mauritania also shaded Corners 4-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Congo DR the likeliest result at 40.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Congo DR at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (60.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Congo DR
40.4%
Market result
Congo DR
44.4%
BTTS
No
60.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
MauritaniaMauritania
Congo DR
5
3
Corners
MauritaniaMauritania
Congo DR
4
3
Possession
Congo DRMauritania
Congo DR
47%
53%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.