Manchester United
Manchester United won after full-time.
3 - 2
FT
Nottingham Forest
Postmatch editorial
Manchester United made the numbers look right
The final score was Manchester United 3-2 Nottingham Forest. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Luke Shaw put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester United led Total shots 29-11. Manchester United also shaded Shots on target 8-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester United the likeliest result at 53.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester United at 63.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester United
53.8%
Market result
Manchester United
63.7%
BTTS
Yes
60.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Nottingham Forest
29
11
Shots on target
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Nottingham Forest
8
4
Corners
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Nottingham Forest
7
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.