Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Patrick Dorgu scored 76' for Manchester United.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester United led Shots on target 7-1. Manchester City also shaded Corners 1-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 48.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 2.28 against a fair line of 2.19. That translated to an edge of 4.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
48.0%
Market result
Manchester City
45.5%
BTTS
Yes
56.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Manchester City
7
1
Corners
Manchester CityManchester United
Manchester City
1
6
Possession
Manchester CityManchester United
Manchester City
32%
68%
Model edge
2
Cloudbet
Market odd
2.28
Fair odd
2.19
Edge
4.1%
Stake
0.79u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.