Manchester United
Leeds United won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Leeds United
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Manchester United 1-2 Leeds United. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Noah Okafor put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Manchester United led Corners 11-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Manchester United also shaded Shots on target 9-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester United the likeliest result at 55.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester United at 61.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 6.20 against a fair line of 5.66. That translated to an edge of 9.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester United
55.1%
Market result
Manchester United
61.3%
BTTS
No
52.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Leeds United
11
4
Shots on target
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Leeds United
9
6
Total shots
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Leeds United
20
15
Model edge
2
Mansionbet
Market odd
6.20
Fair odd
5.66
Edge
9.5%
Stake
0.38u
That ticket matched the final outcome.