Manchester United
Manchester United won after full-time.
3 - 2
FT
Fulham
Postmatch editorial
Manchester United turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Manchester United 3-2 Fulham. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Benjamin Sesko scored 90+4' for Manchester United.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Fulham led Corners 3-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Fulham also shaded Possession 42%-58%.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester United the likeliest result at 50.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester United at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.8%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester United
50.5%
Market result
Manchester United
65.4%
BTTS
Yes
56.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
FulhamManchester United
Fulham
3
7
Possession
FulhamManchester United
Fulham
42%
58%
Total shots
FulhamManchester United
Fulham
13
14
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.