Manchester United
Manchester United won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Brentford
Postmatch editorial
Manchester United made the numbers look right
The final score was Manchester United 2-1 Brentford. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Casemiro put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester United led Shots on target 6-4. Brentford also shaded Possession 45%-55%.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester United the likeliest result at 53.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester United at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester United
53.5%
Market result
Manchester United
51.3%
BTTS
Yes
58.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester UnitedManchester United
Brentford
6
4
Possession
BrentfordManchester United
Brentford
45%
55%
Corners
BrentfordManchester United
Brentford
7
8
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.