Manchester City
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Nottingham Forest
Postmatch editorial
The pre-match tension never quite broke
The final score was Manchester City 2-2 Nottingham Forest. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Elliot Anderson 76', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Manchester City led Corners 6-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Manchester City also shaded Total shots 21-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 67.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 71.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.6%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.51 against a fair line of 1.48. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
67.2%
Market result
Manchester City
71.4%
BTTS
No
50.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Manchester CityManchester City
Nottingham Forest
6
1
Total shots
Manchester CityManchester City
Nottingham Forest
21
9
Shots on target
Manchester CityManchester City
Nottingham Forest
7
4
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.51
Fair odd
1.48
Edge
2.0%
Stake
1.31u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.