Manchester City
Manchester City won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Crystal Palace
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Manchester City delivered it
The final score was Manchester City 3-0 Crystal Palace. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Savinho scored 84' for Manchester City.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester City led Shots on target 4-2. Manchester City also shaded Total shots 15-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 65.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.3%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.29 against a fair line of 1.27. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
65.2%
Market result
Manchester City
76.9%
BTTS
Yes
52.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester CityManchester City
Crystal Palace
4
2
Total shots
Manchester CityManchester City
Crystal Palace
15
6
Possession
Manchester CityManchester City
Crystal Palace
73%
27%
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.29
Fair odd
1.27
Edge
1.6%
Stake
1.80u
That ticket matched the final outcome.