Manchester City
Manchester City won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Brentford
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Manchester City delivered it
The final score was Manchester City 3-0 Brentford. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Omar Marmoush scored 90+2' for Manchester City.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester City led Shots on target 10-2. Manchester City also shaded Total shots 25-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 67.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 73.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.43 against a fair line of 1.40. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
67.8%
Market result
Manchester City
73.5%
BTTS
Yes
52.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester CityManchester City
Brentford
10
2
Total shots
Manchester CityManchester City
Brentford
25
4
Corners
Manchester CityManchester City
Brentford
10
2
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.43
Fair odd
1.40
Edge
2.1%
Stake
1.44u
That ticket matched the final outcome.