Manchester City
Manchester City won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Arsenal
Postmatch editorial
Manchester City made the numbers look right
The final score was Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Rayan Cherki put the first mark on the match 16', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester City led Shots on target 5-3. Manchester City also shaded Total shots 15-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 41.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 54.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
41.5%
Market result
Manchester City
54.1%
BTTS
Yes
61.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester CityManchester City
Arsenal
5
3
Total shots
Manchester CityManchester City
Arsenal
15
9
Possession
Manchester CityManchester City
Arsenal
59%
41%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.