Mallorca
Mallorca won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Real Madrid
Postmatch editorial
Mallorca flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Mallorca 2-1 Real Madrid. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Vedat Muriqi scored 90+1' for Mallorca.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Real Madrid led Shots on target 2-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Real Madrid also shaded Total shots 6-15.
Before kickoff, our model made Real Madrid the likeliest result at 58.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Real Madrid at 64.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Real Madrid
58.9%
Market result
Real Madrid
64.3%
BTTS
Yes
50.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Real MadridMallorca
Real Madrid
2
6
Total shots
Real MadridMallorca
Real Madrid
6
15
Possession
Real MadridMallorca
Real Madrid
36%
64%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.