Postmatch editorial

Mallorca found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Mallorca 2-1 Espanyol. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Espanyol struck first through Charles Pickel 36', but Mallorca recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mallorca led Shots on target 12-2. Mallorca also shaded Total shots 26-10.

Before kickoff, our model made Espanyol the likeliest result at 37.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mallorca at 40.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.5%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Espanyol

37.4%

Miss

Market result

Mallorca

40.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Mallorca

Mallorca

Espanyol

12

2

Total shots

Mallorca

Mallorca

Espanyol

26

10

Possession

Mallorca

Mallorca

Espanyol

68%

32%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.