Postmatch editorial
Mallorca turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Mallorca 3-1 Elche. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Vedat Muriqi scored 89' for Mallorca.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mallorca led Shots on target 8-0. Mallorca also shaded Total shots 15-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Mallorca the likeliest result at 36.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mallorca at 39.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.6%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 2.78 against a fair line of 2.64. That translated to an edge of 5.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Mallorca
36.0%
Market result
Mallorca
39.8%
BTTS
No
56.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
MallorcaMallorca
Elche
8
0
Total shots
MallorcaMallorca
Elche
15
9
Possession
ElcheMallorca
Elche
42%
58%
Model edge
1
Cloudbet
Market odd
2.78
Fair odd
2.64
Edge
5.3%
Stake
0.65u
That ticket matched the final outcome.