Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Mallorca
The final score was Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Vedat Muriqi put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Athletic Club led Corners 3-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Athletic Club also shaded Shots on target 9-11.
Before kickoff, our model made Athletic Club the likeliest result at 38.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Athletic Club at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.4%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Athletic Club
38.0%
Market result
Athletic Club
46.5%
BTTS
No
55.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Athletic ClubMallorca
Athletic Club
3
7
Shots on target
Athletic ClubMallorca
Athletic Club
9
11
Total shots
Athletic ClubMallorca
Athletic Club
17
21
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.