Postmatch editorial

Mali made the numbers look right

The final score was Mali 4-1 Madagascar. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Gaoussou Diarra scored 90+5' for Mali.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mali led Shots on target 2-1. Mali also shaded Total shots 6-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Mali the likeliest result at 56.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mali at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 4.50 against a fair line of 4.17. That translated to an edge of 7.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mali

56.4%

Hit

Market result

Mali

51.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Mali

Mali

Madagascar

2

1

Total shots

Mali

Mali

Madagascar

6

3

Corners

Madagascar

Mali

Madagascar

3

6

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

4.50

Fair odd

4.17

Edge

7.9%

Stake

0.46u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.