Postmatch editorial

Mali turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Mali 3-0 Comoros. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Lassana Coulibaly scored 76' for Mali.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Mali led Shots on target 2-1. Mali also shaded Corners 2-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Mali the likeliest result at 61.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mali at 71.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (56.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.53 against a fair line of 1.50. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mali

61.0%

Hit

Market result

Mali

71.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

56.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Mali

Mali

Comoros

2

1

Corners

Mali

Mali

Comoros

2

1

Total shots

Mali

Mali

Comoros

4

3

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

1.53

Fair odd

1.50

Edge

2.0%

Stake

1.28u

That ticket matched the final outcome.