Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Malawi 2-2 Liberia. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Chawa 80', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Malawi led Shots on target 5-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Malawi also shaded Total shots 11-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Malawi the likeliest result at 48.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Malawi at 54.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 2.15 against a fair line of 2.07. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Malawi

48.1%

Miss

Market result

Malawi

54.1%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Malawi

Malawi

Liberia

5

2

Total shots

Malawi

Malawi

Liberia

11

4

Corners

Malawi

Malawi

Liberia

4

1

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

2.15

Fair odd

2.07

Edge

3.9%

Stake

0.90u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.