Postmatch editorial

Ghana turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Madagascar 0-3 Ghana. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Thomas Partey put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Ghana led Shots on target 2-4. Ghana also shaded Corners 2-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Ghana the likeliest result at 43.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ghana at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 2.15 against a fair line of 2.07. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ghana

43.0%

Hit

Market result

Ghana

52.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Ghana

Madagascar

Ghana

2

4

Corners

Ghana

Madagascar

Ghana

2

4

Total shots

Ghana

Madagascar

Ghana

8

9

Model edge

2

Betsson

Market odd

2.15

Fair odd

2.07

Edge

3.9%

Stake

0.86u

That ticket matched the final outcome.