Postmatch editorial

The script held and Madagascar delivered it

The final score was Madagascar 3-1 Chad. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Chad struck first through Yves Allarabaye 25', but Madagascar recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Madagascar led Corners 9-1. Madagascar also shaded Shots on target 3-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Madagascar the likeliest result at 63.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Madagascar at 84.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.28 against a fair line of 1.26. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Madagascar

63.0%

Hit

Market result

Madagascar

84.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

57.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Madagascar

Madagascar

Chad

9

1

Shots on target

Madagascar

Madagascar

Chad

3

2

Total shots

Madagascar

Madagascar

Chad

4

3

Model edge

1

10bet

Market odd

1.28

Fair odd

1.26

Edge

1.6%

Stake

2.02u

That ticket matched the final outcome.