Postmatch editorial

Madagascar turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Madagascar 2-0 Central African Republic. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Warren Caddy put the first mark on the match 45+2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Madagascar led Shots on target 1-0. Madagascar also shaded Total shots 3-0.

Before kickoff, our model made Madagascar the likeliest result at 45.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Madagascar at 54.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 888sport. The market was offering 2.05 against a fair line of 1.98. That translated to an edge of 3.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Madagascar

45.0%

Hit

Market result

Madagascar

54.2%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Madagascar

Madagascar

Central African Republic

1

0

Total shots

Madagascar

Madagascar

Central African Republic

3

0

Corners

Madagascar

Madagascar

Central African Republic

5

3

Model edge

1

888sport

Market odd

2.05

Fair odd

1.98

Edge

3.5%

Stake

0.89u

That ticket matched the final outcome.