Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was LOSC Lille 1-1 Le Havre. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson put the first mark on the match 29', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: LOSC Lille led Shots on target 10-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. LOSC Lille also shaded Total shots 22-2.
Before kickoff, our model made LOSC Lille the likeliest result at 57.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced LOSC Lille at 73.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
LOSC Lille
57.6%
Market result
LOSC Lille
73.0%
BTTS
No
53.2%
Match numbers
Shots on target
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille
Le Havre
10
2
Total shots
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille
Le Havre
22
2
Possession
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille
Le Havre
67%
33%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.