LOSC Lille
Auxerre won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Auxerre
Postmatch editorial
Auxerre bent the night away from the script
The final score was LOSC Lille 0-2 Auxerre. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Lassine Sinayoko scored 90' for Auxerre.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: LOSC Lille led Possession 73%-27%, even though the scoreboard went another way. LOSC Lille also shaded Total shots 12-7.
Before kickoff, our model made LOSC Lille the likeliest result at 60.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced LOSC Lille at 70.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
LOSC Lille
60.7%
Market result
LOSC Lille
70.4%
BTTS
No
53.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille
Auxerre
73%
27%
Total shots
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille
Auxerre
12
7
Corners
LOSC LilleLOSC Lille
Auxerre
4
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.