Postmatch editorial

Lorient bent the night away from the script

The final score was Lorient 2-0 Olympique Marseille. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Panos Katseris put the first mark on the match 28', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Lorient led Shots on target 4-2. Olympique Marseille also shaded Corners 1-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Marseille the likeliest result at 42.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Marseille at 60.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.93 against a fair line of 1.87. That translated to an edge of 3.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Olympique Marseille

42.2%

Miss

Market result

Olympique Marseille

60.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

58.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Lorient

Lorient

Olympique Marseille

4

2

Corners

Olympique Marseille

Lorient

Olympique Marseille

1

7

Total shots

Olympique Marseille

Lorient

Olympique Marseille

11

16

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

1.93

Fair odd

1.87

Edge

3.2%

Stake

1.00u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.