Lorient
Le Havre won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Le Havre
Postmatch editorial
Le Havre flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Lorient 0-2 Le Havre. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Abdoulaye Faye put the first mark on the match 33', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Le Havre led Shots on target 2-4. Lorient also shaded Corners 5-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Lorient the likeliest result at 47.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Lorient at 43.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.63 against a fair line of 2.51. That translated to an edge of 4.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Lorient
47.9%
Market result
Lorient
43.3%
BTTS
Yes
50.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Le HavreLorient
Le Havre
2
4
Corners
LorientLorient
Le Havre
5
1
Total shots
LorientLorient
Le Havre
12
7
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
2.63
Fair odd
2.51
Edge
4.8%
Stake
0.69u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.