Postmatch editorial

Lorca flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Lorca 2-1 Numancia. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Carlos Gutiérrez put the first mark on the match 45', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Numancia led Shots on target 5-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Lorca also shaded Total shots 11-9.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Numancia the favourite at 46.5% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Numancia

46.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Numancia

Lorca

Numancia

5

6

Total shots

Lorca

Lorca

Numancia

11

9

Possession

Numancia

Lorca

Numancia

45%

55%