Postmatch editorial

Poland turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Lithuania 0-2 Poland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Sebastian Szymanski put the first mark on the match 15', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Poland led Shots on target 1-6. Poland also shaded Total shots 7-12.

Before kickoff, our model made Poland the likeliest result at 46.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Poland at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.48 against a fair line of 2.37. That translated to an edge of 4.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Poland

46.1%

Hit

Market result

Poland

75.2%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Poland

Lithuania

Poland

1

6

Total shots

Poland

Lithuania

Poland

7

12

Corners

Poland

Lithuania

Poland

4

8

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

2.48

Fair odd

2.37

Edge

4.6%

Stake

1.31u

That ticket matched the final outcome.