Postmatch editorial

Netherlands made the numbers look right

The final score was Lithuania 2-3 Netherlands. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Memphis Depay put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Netherlands led Total shots 4-14. Netherlands also shaded Shots on target 3-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Netherlands the likeliest result at 72.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Netherlands at 92.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (66.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 2.10 against a fair line of 2.02. That translated to an edge of 4.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Netherlands

72.1%

Hit

Market result

Netherlands

92.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

66.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Netherlands

Lithuania

Netherlands

4

14

Shots on target

Netherlands

Lithuania

Netherlands

3

7

Corners

Netherlands

Lithuania

Netherlands

1

7

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

2.10

Fair odd

2.02

Edge

4.0%

Stake

2.42u

That ticket matched the final outcome.