Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Lithuania 1-1 Malta. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Gvidas Gineitis 90+6', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Lithuania led Corners 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Lithuania also shaded Shots on target 4-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Lithuania the likeliest result at 58.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Lithuania at 62.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 5.50 against a fair line of 5.05. That translated to an edge of 8.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Lithuania

58.5%

Miss

Market result

Lithuania

62.9%

Miss

BTTS

No

58.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Lithuania

Lithuania

Malta

4

2

Shots on target

Lithuania

Lithuania

Malta

4

3

Possession

Lithuania

Lithuania

Malta

55%

45%

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

5.50

Fair odd

5.05

Edge

8.9%

Stake

0.40u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.