Postmatch editorial
The script held and Belgium delivered it
The final score was Liechtenstein 0-6 Belgium. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Malick Fofana scored 90+1' for Belgium.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Belgium led Shots on target 0-9. Belgium also shaded Total shots 0-24.
Before kickoff, our model made Belgium the likeliest result at 79.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Belgium at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (72.1%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Belgium
79.4%
Market result
Belgium
99.0%
BTTS
No
72.1%
Match numbers
Shots on target
BelgiumLiechtenstein
Belgium
0
9
Total shots
BelgiumLiechtenstein
Belgium
0
24
Possession
BelgiumLiechtenstein
Belgium
18%
82%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.