Libya
Game ended in draw.
3 - 3
FT
Cape Verde Islands
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Draw
The final score was Libya 3-3 Cape Verde Islands. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Willy Semedo 82', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Cape Verde Islands led Possession 43%-57%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Libya also shaded Corners 6-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Libya the likeliest result at 34.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cape Verde Islands at 43.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.2%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 10bet. The market was offering 2.60 against a fair line of 2.48. That translated to an edge of 4.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Libya
34.6%
Market result
Cape Verde Islands
43.0%
BTTS
No
58.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
Cape Verde IslandsLibya
Cape Verde Islands
43%
57%
Corners
LibyaLibya
Cape Verde Islands
6
5
Total shots
LibyaLibya
Cape Verde Islands
10
9
Model edge
2
10bet
Market odd
2.60
Fair odd
2.48
Edge
4.8%
Stake
0.70u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.