Postmatch editorial

Draw settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Libya 1-1 Angola. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Fredy 90+3', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Angola led Total shots 4-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Angola also shaded Shots on target 3-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Angola the likeliest result at 38.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Angola at 38.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (63.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 2.90 against a fair line of 2.75. That translated to an edge of 5.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Angola

38.4%

Miss

Market result

Angola

38.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

63.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Angola

Libya

Angola

4

9

Shots on target

Angola

Libya

Angola

3

5

Corners

Libya

Libya

Angola

4

2

Model edge

2

Betsson

Market odd

2.90

Fair odd

2.75

Edge

5.5%

Stake

0.64u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.