Postmatch editorial

The script held and Tunisia delivered it

The final score was Liberia 0-1 Tunisia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Hazem Mastouri put the first mark on the match 4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Tunisia led Total shots 5-9. Liberia also shaded Possession 62%-38%.

Before kickoff, our model made Tunisia the likeliest result at 51.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Tunisia at 55.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Betway. The market was offering 3.60 against a fair line of 3.38. That translated to an edge of 6.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Tunisia

51.9%

Hit

Market result

Tunisia

55.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Tunisia

Liberia

Tunisia

5

9

Possession

Liberia

Liberia

Tunisia

62%

38%

Shots on target

Tunisia

Liberia

Tunisia

4

5

Model edge

X

Betway

Market odd

3.60

Fair odd

3.38

Edge

6.5%

Stake

0.54u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.