Postmatch editorial

Liberia made the numbers look right

The final score was Liberia 2-1 São Tomé and Príncipe. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Nicholas Andrews put the first mark on the match 4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: São Tomé and Príncipe led Shots on target 2-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Liberia also shaded Corners 3-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Liberia the likeliest result at 64.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Liberia at 79.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.8%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Liberia

64.4%

Hit

Market result

Liberia

79.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

São Tomé and Príncipe

Liberia

São Tomé and Príncipe

2

3

Corners

Liberia

Liberia

São Tomé and Príncipe

3

2

Total shots

São Tomé and Príncipe

Liberia

São Tomé and Príncipe

9

11

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.