Postmatch editorial

Valencia settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Levante 0-2 Valencia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Umar Sadiq scored 84' for Valencia.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Valencia led Shots on target 1-2. Levante also shaded Total shots 9-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Levante the likeliest result at 40.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Levante at 37.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.6%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 3.04 against a fair line of 2.88. That translated to an edge of 5.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Levante

40.4%

Miss

Market result

Levante

37.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Valencia

Levante

Valencia

1

2

Total shots

Levante

Levante

Valencia

9

5

Corners

Levante

Levante

Valencia

3

2

Model edge

1

Marathonbet

Market odd

3.04

Fair odd

2.88

Edge

5.6%

Stake

0.61u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.