Postmatch editorial

Draw settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Levante 1-1 Girona. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Joel Roca 90+4', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Girona led Possession 33%-67%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Girona also shaded Total shots 14-22.

Before kickoff, our model made Girona the likeliest result at 40.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Girona at 38.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.8%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Girona

40.1%

Miss

Market result

Girona

38.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

50.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Girona

Levante

Girona

33%

67%

Total shots

Girona

Levante

Girona

14

22

Shots on target

Girona

Levante

Girona

4

5

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.