Levante
Levante won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Deportivo Alavés
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Levante
The final score was Levante 2-0 Deportivo Alavés. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Carlos Espí scored 90+7' for Levante.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Deportivo Alavés led Shots on target 5-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Levante also shaded Corners 10-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Deportivo Alavés the likeliest result at 38.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Levante at 37.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.4%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Deportivo Alavés
38.3%
Market result
Levante
37.0%
BTTS
Yes
51.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Deportivo AlavésLevante
Deportivo Alavés
5
7
Corners
LevanteLevante
Deportivo Alavés
10
6
Total shots
LevanteLevante
Deportivo Alavés
22
17
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.