Lesotho
Nigeria won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Nigeria
Postmatch editorial
Nigeria made the numbers look right
The final score was Lesotho 1-2 Nigeria. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
William Troost-Ekong put the first mark on the match 55', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Nigeria led Shots on target 0-9. Nigeria also shaded Total shots 3-14.
Before kickoff, our model made Nigeria the likeliest result at 60.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Nigeria at 95.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Nigeria
60.2%
Market result
Nigeria
95.2%
BTTS
No
61.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
NigeriaLesotho
Nigeria
0
9
Total shots
NigeriaLesotho
Nigeria
3
14
Corners
NigeriaLesotho
Nigeria
2
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.