Leeds United
Leeds United won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Leeds United delivered it
The final score was Leeds United 3-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored 90+5' for Leeds United.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Leeds United led Shots on target 6-2. Leeds United also shaded Total shots 17-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Leeds United the likeliest result at 60.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Leeds United at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.69 against a fair line of 1.65. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Leeds United
60.1%
Market result
Leeds United
65.4%
BTTS
No
52.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
6
2
Total shots
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
17
7
Possession
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
56%
44%
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
1.69
Fair odd
1.65
Edge
2.4%
Stake
1.09u
That ticket matched the final outcome.