Leeds United
Sunderland won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Sunderland
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Leeds United 0-1 Sunderland. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Habib Diarra put the first mark on the match 70', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Leeds United led Shots on target 4-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Leeds United also shaded Total shots 18-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Leeds United the likeliest result at 49.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Leeds United at 54.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.5%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Leeds United
49.6%
Market result
Leeds United
54.6%
BTTS
No
50.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Sunderland
4
1
Total shots
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Sunderland
18
3
Corners
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Sunderland
9
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.