Leeds United
Manchester City won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Manchester City
Postmatch editorial
Manchester City turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Leeds United 0-1 Manchester City. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Antoine Semenyo put the first mark on the match 45+2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester City led Shots on target 2-5. Manchester City also shaded Possession 33%-67%.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 48.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 58.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
48.1%
Market result
Manchester City
58.1%
BTTS
Yes
56.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester CityLeeds United
Manchester City
2
5
Possession
Manchester CityLeeds United
Manchester City
33%
67%
Corners
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Manchester City
5
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.