Postmatch editorial
Leeds United found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Leeds United 4-1 Crystal Palace. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Anton Stach scored 90+11' for Leeds United.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Leeds United led Shots on target 8-3. Leeds United also shaded Total shots 20-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Crystal Palace the likeliest result at 37.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Crystal Palace at 37.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Crystal Palace
37.1%
Market result
Crystal Palace
37.7%
BTTS
Yes
53.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Crystal Palace
8
3
Total shots
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Crystal Palace
20
9
Corners
Leeds UnitedLeeds United
Crystal Palace
9
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.