Postmatch editorial

Leeds United made the numbers look right

The final score was Leeds United 3-1 Burnley. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Anton Stach put the first mark on the match 8', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Leeds United led Shots on target 8-3. Leeds United also shaded Corners 5-0.

Before kickoff, our model made Leeds United the likeliest result at 63.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Leeds United at 72.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 1.45 against a fair line of 1.42. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Leeds United

63.7%

Hit

Market result

Leeds United

72.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

53.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Leeds United

Leeds United

Burnley

8

3

Corners

Leeds United

Leeds United

Burnley

5

0

Total shots

Leeds United

Leeds United

Burnley

18

9

Model edge

1

Interwetten

Market odd

1.45

Fair odd

1.42

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.40u

That ticket matched the final outcome.