Leeds United
Leeds United won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Brighton & Hove Albion
Postmatch editorial
Leeds United settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Leeds United 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored 90+6' for Leeds United.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Brighton & Hove Albion led Shots on target 1-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Brighton & Hove Albion also shaded Total shots 7-19.
Before kickoff, our model made Leeds United the likeliest result at 42.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Brighton & Hove Albion at 48.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Leeds United
42.8%
Market result
Brighton & Hove Albion
48.8%
BTTS
Yes
57.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Brighton & Hove AlbionLeeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion
1
8
Total shots
Brighton & Hove AlbionLeeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion
7
19
Possession
Brighton & Hove AlbionLeeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion
34%
66%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.