Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Lecce

The final score was Lecce 1-0 Genoa. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Lameck Banda put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Lecce led Shots on target 4-1. Genoa also shaded Corners 1-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Genoa the likeliest result at 39.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Lecce at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Interwetten. The market was offering 6.00 against a fair line of 5.49. That translated to an edge of 9.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Genoa

39.2%

Miss

Market result

Lecce

52.4%

Hit

BTTS

No

54.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Lecce

Lecce

Genoa

4

1

Corners

Genoa

Lecce

Genoa

1

6

Possession

Genoa

Lecce

Genoa

32%

68%

Model edge

2

Interwetten

Market odd

6.00

Fair odd

5.49

Edge

9.3%

Stake

0.38u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.