Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Le Havre 0-0 Olympique Lyonnais. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Neither Le Havre nor Olympique Lyonnais found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Olympique Lyonnais led Possession 35%-65%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Olympique Lyonnais also shaded Total shots 12-13.
Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Lyonnais the likeliest result at 49.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Lyonnais at 46.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Olympique Lyonnais
49.3%
Market result
Olympique Lyonnais
46.6%
BTTS
Yes
53.2%
Match numbers
Possession
Olympique LyonnaisLe Havre
Olympique Lyonnais
35%
65%
Total shots
Olympique LyonnaisLe Havre
Olympique Lyonnais
12
13
Shots on target
Le Havre
Olympique Lyonnais
4
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.