Le Havre
Game ended in draw.
4 - 4
FT
Metz
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Le Havre 4-4 Metz. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Gauthier Hein 85', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Le Havre led Corners 6-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Le Havre also shaded Total shots 14-12.
Before kickoff, our model made Le Havre the likeliest result at 45.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Le Havre at 62.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Le Havre
45.4%
Market result
Le Havre
62.5%
BTTS
Yes
51.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Le HavreLe Havre
Metz
6
4
Total shots
Le HavreLe Havre
Metz
14
12
Possession
MetzLe Havre
Metz
47%
53%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.